It’s not a secret that some of the best live poker players in the world have trouble beating online games. While there is a distinct possibility that these guys who have grown to rely heavily on their player reading skills, suddenly find themselves without one of their main weapons, and thus are unable to deal with the situation on their own terms, but there are other factors at play here too.
If you sign up to an online poker forum, you’re sure to come by comments made by online poker players who claim the game is rigged, because there seem to be far more bad beats in it than in live poker. While the claim about the bad beats is true, it doesn’t represent any sort of proof. Bad beats can be explained with some pretty straightforward reasoning, (believe me, I’ve suffered many bad beats in online poker too), as well as the reason why there are more of them online than offline.
For one thing, online poker is about playing far more hands per hour than live poker. That alone is something that brings about more bad beats. The hourly rate for winning players grows as well, but with it, so does the incidence of bad beats.
The increased hourly rate brings about a ripple-effect affecting many other aspects of online game-play too. Because the hourly rate is bigger, in theory, players can afford to act on more marginal EV+ hands. As there is a direct proportionality between the average EV on a bet and the hourly earnings rate, it is safe to say that these two variables influence each-other. If the hourly rate goes up, and the EV per hand goes down, winning will still be possible. People acting on more marginal EV hands, means the game will loosen up. A loose game means there will be more people seeing the flop, the turn and probably the river too. This will lead to increased schooling, which in turn is the best prerequisite to some of the most insane bad beats.
The EV players feel justified to act on is further reduced by the presence of Sign-up bonuses and rake back deals.
These are the differences between online and offline poker. There are a few things though, which remain the same. The mathematical probabilities on hands, the basic principles of “healthy poker”, they all remain. That means the mistakes that players usually make also prevail. Let’s take a look at one of the most common mistakes people make: overestimating their small pairs. Because there are far more rookies and generally bad players online this incorrect strategic approach will haunt tables all the time.
Let’s suppose we have a guy under the gun with a small pair in his pocket. He raises to see where he stands, but gets called by one guy and re-raised by the cut-off. As the action swings back to him, our small pair will most likely not only call, but shove it all-in if needed. By that stage however, he’s probably beat already.
Pairs pretty much exclude straights and flushes, and because it’s a two outer call, the chances of landing a set are not that good either.
Certainly, in short handed poker it is recommended that you try to see as many flops on your small pairs as possible, because it is assumed that the money you spend on seeing all those flops will be more than made up for when you do land your trips (trips obtained on a pocket pair are impossible reads for the opposition). Those implied odds however only justify seeing the cheaper flops. Going all-in is an altogether different story, which brings along some entirely different implied odds that are not at all favourable for the player.
Bottom line is, the fundamental theorem of poker, put forth by online casinos according to which the goal of every player should be to play every hand as if he were able to see his opponent’s cards, remains standing.